Thursday, October 11, 2012

Mitt Romney for President?

Mitt Romney is a qualified contender for the post of US presidency.  He is smart, energetic, and well educated. His performance on the first presidential debate was remarkable. He not only defeated President Obama on the first debate but also made the president look silly. It is even more impressive considering the fact that Obama is widely recognized as one of the most impressive speakers of our time. Would not all this make Romney the superior choice for US presidency?

Here are some facts and thoughts
  1. US can not afford to not invest in its infrastructure today. Its roads and bridges are crumbling. Across the country school districts are cutting programs and firing teachers. Mr. Romney says we can not afford to borrow and invest. Another presidential candidate, also a business man made the same argument 90 years ago. Americans are fortunate that he did not win that election. In 1932, if Herbert Hoover had won the presidency we would be in a much worse place today. The choice today is not that much different from that election. We have plenty of surplus labor in the country today.  The world is willing to lend us their surplus capital at record low rates (10 year treasury yields 1.7% as of writing).  So invest is exactly what we should do today if we are financially prudent and really care about our future. Cutting government spending at this time, like Mr. Romney proposes, would depress demand and increase the chance of us falling back to recession
  2. Appeasement of voters is the curse of modern democracy. Elections are contested by leaders promising everything to voters without asking them for any sacrifices. Only a true leader can be truthful to the voters and talk about the pain associated with different choices. Mr. Romney promises across the board 20% tax cuts and still a reduced deficit. He says he can do this by cutting the loopholes in our tax system. There are no loopholes or deductions that adds up to 20% of tax revenue.   The non partisan tax committee who looked into this concluded that even if you cut all deductions it would only add up to around 4% of the tax revenue. So if he really wants his plan to be budget neutral then he will have to cut many of the programs that the poor and middle class depend upon. Mr. Romney does not seem to think voters are intelligent enough to figure this out. 
  3. In his book, 'No Apology' and in many of his speeches, Mr. Romney talks about American exceptionalism and how it is on the Americans to take control and shape the world.  He joins the neo-conservative crowd who argues that acknowledging any historical foreign policy missteps of US is a grave sin or weakness. According to this theory US could not make any mistake at all.  However the fact is the same 'superior us versus inferior everybody else' view only dragged us and others into many unnecessary global conflicts. This position does not give Mr. Romney the credibility that he has sufficient understanding of the wider world required to assume the commander in chief's role.
  4. Mr. Romney wants to get rid off most regulations. He says the regulations are burdens and additional cost to business. Agree. But lack of regulation gave us the greatest financial mess from which we are only crawling out now. Just recently one lone JP Morgan trader (aka London Whale) was able to cause its investors billions of dollar in trading loss. During the 2008-2009 most of us lost most of our 401K and IRA savings due to reckless actions of few. Yes, the lack of regulations helps few but does not protect most. The truth is the rising tide only lifted few yachts to the top. Rest of us are still struggling to stay float on our canoes. We need some protection from all those whales.
  5. Finally, did I say Mr Romney is clever? He defeated Obama in the first debate with one very simple trick. Disguise. That is correct!. Obama came to the debate prepared to face off a challenger who has been promising tax cuts, trickle down economics, and repeal of Obama care.  He instead faced somebody who talked like no other but Obama himself. This Romney said everything that Obama supports. Four of his five point plan for America is now exactly what Obama has been selling on his campaign trail. So how could you argue with somebody who agrees with you on most everything? It would not be that bad if we get a president Romney that resembles anywhere close to the person we met on that debate day. The problem is it is too early for us to forget the Romney we saw during the republican primaries. It was also the same Romney who decided to pick Congressman Ryan, one of the most right wing ideologue as his running mate, one of the first major decision of his candidacy. We can not take the chances to have that Romney in the white house. 



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